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3 Tips to remain strong during the “crisis”

March 25th, 2009

Facebook 534, Twitter: 35, Linkedin: 34. If you’re asking what are those numbers, they represent how valuable are those projects for certain people (in millions dollars invested!!). Those are just a couple of samples of how much funding can get a web project. But how far is going to be yours?

I always liked to merge entrepreneurship with leadership. I think that an entrepreneur needs to be a good leader to be successful, and a leader by default, is generating new things all the time, he’s taking people to places that they couldn’t go alone (sometimes they couldn’t even imagine to be there) and that’s done by being creative, by looking forward, and staying sharp as a leader.

But “generate new things” it’s not the only job for an entrepreneur. The reason that companies like Facebook went so far, or that startups like Twitter or LinkedIn are going so far in the middle of this crisis, it’s not because they’re lucky, but it’s because they’re leading the process which includes overcoming difficult times.

I have failed sometimes in the past, even when there were great forecasts announcing really high revenues, I saw great ideas die after a hard reality hit them. But I reject to talk about this “crisis” that everybody’s talking about, I prefer to say “Silence, I kill you” (see Achmed video for reference) to the idea of a global crisis because the way we talk, the things we say, the conversations that we maintain have impact in our reality, that’s why I always prefer to talk about possibility. We need to understand our reality, but as entrepreneurs, as leaders, as people that live on the cutting edge technology we must talk about a possible future, always.

There’s a very interesting principle that the ontology studies which says something like: “The human being is a linguistic being”, which means that the second thing that we do all the time after thinking is talking. That said, we really need to think about what we’re saying!.

The second principle that I learned, is that “the language is a reality generator tool”, every time you declare something with your mouth, you’re generating changes, when a judge says Jail to somebody, he’s changing somebody else’s life. The same happens when you declare that you’re done with something, that 2009 is not the best year to start anything, or to invest time on anything. When you say that kind of things you’re actually “jailing yourself”, probably without being aware of that.

I always remember three advices that helped me be strong in those “critical times” in the past.

1) “If somebody did it before, then you can make it”. When I see countries rising up after very long wars, or after horrible events like 9/11, when I see them strong again, I think that’s a miracle, but it’s not. Whenever you feel like you can’t keep up, whenever you feel that you have spent too much effort on your project without any reward, think about this kind of events, they will show you that there’s nothing impossible, that there’s not a situation that you can’t overcome if you really strive with a strong entrepreneur’s vision, being focused on the future.

2) “A leader is never dropped, he’s always rising up”. As I said I had difficult times in the past, times where I didn’t have even one dollar for the bus to go to a meeting. But you can’t quit just because you feel tired, you can’t forget about your vision because it’s difficult to keep up. Leave your projects when you feel that it’s done, when you feel that the time has passed to that idea, but not because you’re holding fear about the future, or because someone else is saying you can’t.

3) “Go get the opportunity, don’t wait for it”. It starts in your language, it’s starts in your brain where you let your thoughts exist. Don’t believe that phrase saying that the opportunity comes next to the crisis. The real entrepreneurs are those who generate the opportunity with their efforts, their passion of what they do, and their constancy in those difficult times. You won’t find people touched by a wand, that didn’t happen to those companies that I mentioned before, they just remained strong, and as Steve Jobs said, they probably remained hungry and foolish too, that’s how they got so far!.

Two days ago I posted my goals for 2009 at Facebook and somebody told me: “isn’t that too much?”, that remembered me a great phrase that I want to share with you, specially today:

“We all live under the same sky, but we don’t all have the same horizon.”

Matias Paterlini

Article originally written for YoungTechStars.com

paterlinimatias Entrepreneurship, Social Media , , , , ,

Facebook to Hit 200 million Active Users in a Matter of Months. Unfortunately, a $100 Billion Valuat

December 19th, 2008

This is a note I received from Lee Lorenzen in the group Official Altura Ventures & AppFactory Facebook Investment Fund at Facebook. It really deserves to be read!!!

Here’s the note:

In a recent post (see http://www.insidefacebook.com/2008/12/16/facebook-now-growing-by-over-600000-users-a-day-and-new-engagement-stats/), Justin Smith noted that Facebook should reach 200 million users in March 2009. I’ve long been a Facebook Fan and had predicted about 18 months ago that this milestone was coming faster than almost everyone else was expecting.

In August 2007, I wrote a post that extrapolated from Facebook’s historical growth rates as follows:

FB 2004 (Dec. 31) — 1 million
FB 2005 (Dec. 31) — 5 million
FB 2006 (Dec. 31) — 12 million
FB 2007 (Apr. 26) — 20 million
FB 2007 (Aug. 1) — 30 million
FB 2007 (Dec. 31) — 50+ million
FB 2008 (June 6) — 100+ million
FB 2008 (Dec. 31) — 200+ million

So as the end of the year approaches, it looks like Facebook may have missed my 200+ million mark by around 3 months time.

Not a bad prediction, huh?

Before anyone else brings it up, I must say that my other prediction regarding Facebook’s ultimate valuation being $100 billion seems a bit less prescient with respect to them hitting this lofty valuation at the same time that they hit their 200 million active user mark.

However, I still believe that Facebook will eventually scale the valuation heights. The reason for my faith in Facebook is the incredible stickiness of their site and my firm belief that someone will crack the nut on extracting revenue from Facebook’s loyal users.

The reality is that almost no one who reaches a certain critical mass of facebook friends (made up of a mix of family, college buddies, relatives, business colleagues, etc.) is going to stop going to the Facebook site. Nor is anyone going to bother recreating this picture of their social graph again on a competitive site (especially now that any site who wants to can simply inherit this data via Facebook Connect). This gives Facebook an incredibly long time horizon to finally figure out a monetization method that will extract a significant amount of revenue per year from the online activities of their 200+ million users both on the Facebook site itself and on other sites that leverage the Facebook profile data.

What will it take to reach a $100 Billion Valuation?

Assuming a valuation rate equal to 5x sales (i.e., $100 billion valuation means $20 billion in annual revenues) and an ultimate active user base of 500 million active users, Facebook would need $40 in annual revenue from each of its users to justify a $100 billion valuation. This level of revenue will probably come from a mix of display advertising, keyword search advertising, friend-to-friend gifting fees, micro-payments for private group access, customer acquisition fees (e.g., credit cards, car loans, mortgage refinancing, etc.), product referral fees, mall membership fees from merchants and per-transaction fees from the use of the Facebook checkout system (and other Facebook Connect-related services like a Facebook-branded credit card).

Based on this, my predictions for Facebook’s active users and annual revenue for the next 6 years are as follows:

FB 2009 (Dec. 31) — 250+ million, $500 million, $2.00 per user per year
FB 2010 (Dec. 31) — 300+ million, $1 billion, $3.33 per user per year
FB 2011 (Dec. 31) — 350+ million, $3.5 billion, $10.00 per user per year
FB 2012 (Dec. 31) — 400+ million, $5 billion, $20.00 per user per year
FB 2013 (Dec. 31) — 450+ million, $13.5 billion, $30.00 per user per year
FB 2014 (Dec. 31) — 500+ million, $20 billion, $40.00 per user per year

We’ll see you in six years to compare notes.

Thanks,
Lee Lorenzen
CEO, Altura Ventures
LeeL@altura.com

paterlinimatias Entrepreneurship, Facebook, Social Network , , , , , ,

Never Give Up!!

December 7th, 2008

Before writing feedback on a website, web application, software, or anything like that, we always doubt if anyone is really going to work on our comments, suggestions, bugs, or if anyone will at least read them!.

The day that Cuil search engine was launched, I made a suggestion about a terrible, simple and well known style bug in their homepage. I never knew anything about that, so this is something that I’ve been throug before, but let me tell you another story.

There was a common bug on Facebook, something posted in 4 threads means to be very common, it was about an “Add to profile” button not being rendered on Safari Browser.

I saw many comments and replies on each thread (and also in the official thread) about the bug. Last answer was a couple of months ago.

I should admit that I wasn’t really expecting an answer, but anyway, I decided to send a reply and an direct email to the developer “working” on the issue telling about a workaround I found to make it work. After 2 replies, 2 days later Voilá!, the bug was fixed.

Sometimes our feedback is SO poor, some other times we don’t even send it, and even worst, we don’t follow the resolution of the bug checking if we left any information about the bug missing… that makes us useless, and we let the developers helpless (I’m a developer too, I know what it feels).

So, this is more about a social conscience post, to persuade those guys that forget about the devs life’s behind a fogbugz, bugzilla, trac, bugtracker, etc. platform!!

And second rule is, no matter how much time have passed, if the bug you’re searching haven’t been fixed yet, you always have the chance to get an answer or even better, you could be the one that fix the bug!

Never give up!

Matias Paterlini

paterlinimatias Development, Facebook , , ,

Facebook email notifications now working?

November 28th, 2008

After two weeks without receiving any notifications from facebook I just Got this Email from facebook:

Unfortunately, the settings that control which email notifications get sent to you were lost. We’re sorry for the inconvenience.

To reset your email notification settings, go to:

http://www.facebook.com/editaccount.php?notifications

Thanks,
The Facebook Team

But it doesn’t seem to be working yet…

paterlinimatias Facebook, Social Network , ,

Maverick Quiz launches on Facebook

November 1st, 2008

Take the 2-minute Maverick Quiz

http://apps.facebook.com/maverickquiz/

We are still developing our templates for Facebook apps. Now we have the quiz routine so we can hit topical subjects like this.

Tell your friends. Use game invites and send email. This one should go pretty fast we think.

Regards,

Matias Paterlini

paterlinimatias Development, Facebook, Social Network , , , , , ,

Facebook Conference Photos…

September 30th, 2008


Here you can see some pictures about the facebook development conference at Fasta:

Thanks to Ignacio Repetto and  Red Estudio for the photos!!!
Matias Paterlini

paterlinimatias Development, Facebook, Open Social, Social Network , , ,

Great day at Fasta University

September 27th, 2008

Yesterday I presented a conference about facebook apps development at Fasta University.

It was a great time, and there are new oportunities to make the presentation in other companies and universities soon. There is a posibility to make a webcast too, so I’ll keep you informed about updates.

You can download the presentation here (it’s spanish mostly, english presentation coming soon):

http://www.paterlinimatias.com/presentations/fasta-2008.pptx

Thanks to all the devs that came to the conference, it was nice to share that time with you.

Cheers!!!

Matias Paterlini

paterlinimatias Development, Facebook, Open Social, Social Network, Uncategorized , , , , , ,

Great time at MTV Latam building a facebook app.

September 24th, 2008

Yesterday I spent a wonderful time at MTV Latam Office in Puerto Madero (Buenos Aires, Argentina). I was just helping to get a widget built by them working on a facebook app.

Very nice people, and very nice chair too!! :)

So you can see the app here:

http://apps.facebook.com/premiosmtv/

You can vote there your favorite artists! cheers!

Matias Paterlini

paterlinimatias Development, Facebook, Open Social, Social Network , , , , , ,

Facebook Apps Development and Monetization Conference at Fasta University

September 16th, 2008

I wanted to share with you that I’ve been invited to make a presentation about Facebook apps development and monetization in the Fasta University Workshop.

The conference will be about Facebook Movement, what is it and how to be part of it, facebook api, libraries, applications infrastructure, monetization, gifts, ads and some other topics.

So if you’re close to Mar del plata, it will be on Friday 09/26 at 21:00 hs. 

Cheers!

Matias Paterlini

paterlinimatias Development, Facebook, Social Network , , , , , , , , ,

Poke the Pope Redesign is finished!

September 16th, 2008

We just completed our first significant update of Poke the Pope. Now we have a leaderboard and we think a unique Friends of Friends category. OfferPal can really drive you on the way to a Pope’s bankroll. We will watch how that works. Next up are some shocking new topics of questions. Then some great papal gifts. Nowhere else will you be able to match that.

To stay ahead of our question research, shop Amazon for the incredible books we are using. And whenever you shop Amazon start from Poke the Pope– Thanks.

You can add Poke the Pope here

Matias Paterlini

paterlinimatias Development, Facebook, Social Network , , , , , , ,